There are less than 24 hours remaining before the MLB trade deadline, and after all of the posturing and gamesmanship, everyone must show their cards by 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 31 to find out who was bluffing and who was actually sincere.
There hasn’t been a single marquee player on the trade market who has been moved, and perhaps by the time the deadline ends and the musical chairs stop, some will still be wearing the same uniform.
Here are the top 10 players on the trade market with the odds (please no wagering) of them actually getting moved:
1. Eugenio Suárez, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
UPDATE: The Diamondbacks agreed to trade Suárez to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for three prospects.
Suárez, who leads all third basemen with 36 homers and 87 RBI, is easily the top prize among all position players. The D-backs have been frustrated that they’re not getting overwhelmed with offers. Teams like the New York Yankees (Ryan McMahon) and Cincinnati Reds (Ke’Bryan Hayes) have pivoted to others, while the Philadelphia Phillies have declined to pay the freight. The Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs are the leading candidates to land him.
2. Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins
Just when it looked like the Marlins would have to wait until the winter to move him after his struggles, he finally is starting to look like one of the game’s premier pitchers again with 12 shutout innings in his last two starts. The beauty of Alcantara is that if you trade for him, you get him for three playoffs races. He’s under control through 2027, with a $17 million contract in 2026 and a $21 million club option in 2027. The Marlins also realize they can simply hang onto him and trade him in the winter or at next year’s deadline.
Odds he’ll be traded: 70%
3. MacKenzie Gore, SP, Washington Nationals
The Nationals certainly don’t want to move the 26-year-old. He’s 4-11 with a 3.80 ERA, but they still believe he’ll be a star, with 144 strikeouts in 117 23 innings, and walking a a career-low 3.4 per nine innings. Yet, with everyone starving for pitching, the Nationals say they have no choice but to listen. If someone grossly overpays, they’ve got no choice but to trade him to accelerate their rebuild.
Odds he’ll be traded: 15%
4. Dylan Cease, SP, San Diego Padres
The Padres have been shopping Cease for about a month, and still haven’t received the return they wanted. Cease, 3-10, 4.79 ERA, is the second-best pitcher on the market behind only Alcantara, with his 98 mph fastball, 92 mph fastball and 153 strikeouts in 118 1/3 innings. Yet, for the Padres to trade him, they need quality players in return who can help this year’s team. The balance has been tough to find, with teams like the Houston Astros trying to strike the right balance.
Odds he’ll be traded: 50%
5. David Bednar, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Bednar has been a model of consistency for the Pirates, pitching in 23 consecutive games without giving up a run. He has 17 saves with a 2.37 ERA, while striking out 12.1 batters per inning. He also is under team control through 2026.
Odds he’ll be traded: 80%
6. Ryan Helsley, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
UPDATE: The Cardinals traded Helsley to the Mets in exchange for prospects Jesus Baez, Nate Dohm and Frank Elissalt.
Helsley hasn’t been as dominant as a year ago when he saved an MLB-leading 48 games, but he still is a top commodity with 26 saves and a 3.00 ERA this season. The Cardinals could have traded him last winter, but wanted to wait until the trade deadline, believing his value would be higher. They are right. It is higher.
7. Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
He doesn’t light up the radar gun, doesn’t strike out 10 batters a game and will be 37 years old in October, but he’s one of the most dependable starters on the block. Kelly, a ground-ball pitcher, is 9-6 with a 3.28 ERA, with 121 strikeouts in 128.2 innings. The D-backs don’t have to move him, and will likely give him a qualifying offer, but will take what they can get at the deadline.
Odds he’ll be traded: 80%
8, Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Gallen, who has had three top-10 Cy Young award finishes, picked a lousy time to have the worst season of his career in his walk year. Gallen is 7-12 with a 5.60 ERA, having trouble with his control this year. Yet, he’s healthy. He’s durable. He’ll only be 30 on Sunday. And, oh yeah, he’s 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA against the Yankees and Mets this season.
Odds he’ll be traded: 90%
9. Luis Robert Jr., CF, Chicago White Sox
Certainly, the numbers don’t lie. He has underachieved, hitting .206 with 11 homers and 43 RBI. He is injury prone, playing more than 100 games only once in his career. And there’s no guarantee he’ll stay healthy for the pennant stretch. Yet, he’s supremely talented, is an outstanding defensive player, and can create havoc on the basepaths with his career-high 26 stolen bases in 87 games. If he performs well, teams can have pick up his $20 million club option in 2026 and 2027. But despite reports the White Sox will hang onto him if they don’t get a top 10 prospect, the truth is that they have no intention of picking up his option for next season.
Odds he’ll be traded: 99.9%
10. Carlos Correa, SS, Minnesota Twins
The Astros, fearing that third baseman Isaac Paredes will be out the rest of the season, recently reached out to the Minnesota Twins to check on their desperation level to unload the remainder of the $103.5 million on Carlos Correa’s contract. The answer? They’d love to have the salary relief, but they’re not about to eat half of his contract just to move him. They’re just fine keeping him through the duration of his contract. And Correa has made it clear to friends that he’s either playing for the Twins or Astros, but no one else.
Odds he’ll be traded: 10%
Follow Bob Nightengale on X: @Bnightengale.