We were warned that continued College Football Playoff expansion would dilute and lessen the importance of the regular season.
Instead, the opposite seems to have occurred: With so many more teams fighting for so many more playoff bids, the final weeks of the regular season seem as heightened and tense as ever.
These increased stakes have brought along the chance that one wacky, wild and wonderful weekend would take a flamethrower to the playoff debate. And here we are.
Saturday saw multiple results that have erased and rewritten the postseason picture in three of the Power Four leagues. The only exception is the ACC, where SMU secured a spot in the conference championship game by beating Virginia and Miami stands one win away from the same after taking care of business against Wake Forest.
The SEC got a bit clearer, too, with Georgia becoming one of two teams heading to Atlanta after a series of upsets that reshaped the race. Already complicated even before the weekend, things are now about as clear as Alabama’s road back to the playoff map — you can see how things might work out, but only if you really squint.
Here’s a quick breakdown of where things currently stand heading into the final weekend of the regular season:
ACC
Miami scored the final 25 points against Wake Forest to win going away for the first time since flattening Florida State in late October. SMU had an even easier time against Virginia. Clemson is still alive to face the Mustangs if the Hurricanes lose next weekend at Syracuse. A win by Miami is far from sure thing given how the Orange have played this year under new coach Fran Brown.
UP AND DOWN: Winners and losers from Week 13 in college football
Big 12
Phew. Brigham Young came up one yard short in a 28-23 loss to Arizona State despite Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham’s willingness to gift wrap and hand the Cougars an early Christmas present: First, the Sun Devils failed to convert on fourth down near the BYU end zone when ahead 21-3, sparking the comeback; then they missed on another fourth down at the BYU 11-yard line with under three minutes when a field goal would’ve made it a touchdown game; and then after an interception, Arizona State failed to run out the clock and gave Jake Retzlaff one last throw into the end zone from midfield with a second left. The heave came up that one yard shy of a miracle win.
So that’s BYU. Colorado was taken down a peg by Kansas and running Devin Neal, who ran for 287 yards and four scores. Iowa State scored with 90 seconds left to get past Utah. It was quite the day for contenders.
Here’s where things stand with BYU, Colorado, Iowa State and Arizona State all tied for first place at 6-2 in conference play. BYU finishes with Houston, Colorado with Oklahoma State, Iowa State with Kansas State and Arizona State with rival Arizona.
If all four win this weekend, ASU and Iowa State would play for the championship, the league said on Saturday. If only BYU loses, Colorado and Arizona State would meet.
If only Colorado loses, it’ll be the Sun Devils and Cyclones because Iowa State would have a better conference opponent winning percentage than BYU. And in the case of just an Iowa State loss, ASU and would play BYU because the Cougars would edge past Colorado because of a better record in games against common conference opponents.
That all made sense, right?
Big Ten
It’s easier here. Oregon is already in the conference title game. Ohio State took a big step toward securing a rematch by beating Indiana 38-15. Now, all the Buckeyes need to do is beat Michigan.
In the case of a loss by the Buckeyes and wins next Saturday by Indiana (Purdue) and Penn State (Maryland), the Nittany Lions would likely face Oregon because of a higher conference opponent winning percentage.
SEC
Just so we’re caught up: Alabama lost 24-6 to Oklahoma, Mississippi lost 24-17 to Florida and Texas A&M lost 43-41 to Auburn in four overtimes.
In the at-large playoff picture, the big winner is Tennessee, which is back with two feet in the mix after shutting out Texas-El Paso. Blocked from playing for the SEC title, the Volunteers end the regular season against Vanderbilt.
Another huge winner is Georgia. Already in the clubhouse at 6-2 in league play with the Georgia Tech rivalry looming, the Bulldogs needed the Tide, Rebels and Aggies to lose in order to play for the SEC title — and they got just that.
Despite the loss, A&M can still meet Georgia by beating Texas. In that case, the Aggies would be finish the regular season in first place by having a better conference opponent win percentage than the Bulldogs, the Longhorns and the Volunteers. Texas is in with a win and would be the only team to end the year with fewer than two conference losses.