Sometimes, divorce is the best option – for everyone. Mom, dad, the kids.
The metaphor loosely applies to the Dallas Cowboys and Mike McCarthy, the sides choosing a parting of the ways Monday with the head coach’s contract expired after five seasons marked by significant highs and the lows America’s Team has typically experienced for decades. Though the Cowboys had an exclusive window to reach an extension with McCarthy in the preceding days, an agreement was never reached.
McCarthy went 50-38, including postseason, with Dallas. His .583 regular-season winning percentage was the fourth best in franchise history even after being depressed by a 7-10 campaign in 2024, when he had significant elements working against him.
Where do the parties go now, and who comes out of this decision better off? Some winners and losers as McCarthy and Dallas wade into HC free agency.
WINNERS
Mike McCarthy
Leading the Cowboys is a tough job. Jerry Jones is the only owner in the league who effectively doubles as a general manager and so frequently interacts with the media and fans, a dynamic which makes for a delicate dynamic for any coach. McCarthy generally navigated it well and produced three consecutive 12-win regular seasons from 2021 to ’23, two NFC East titles earned in that span. He already has a Super Bowl win (2010 with the Green Bay Packers) on a résumé that includes 185 NFL wins and should immediately become a prominent commodity on the head coaching market as the 2025 cycle really gets spinning.
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NFL teams with coaching vacancies
With the Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets all casting nets for their next HCs, there doesn’t exactly appear to be another white whale out there – now that Mike Vrabel has expectedly taken the New England Patriots’ job – aside from Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. The Bears have already attempted to talk to McCarthy – the Cowboys denied permission during their exclusive negotiating window – while the Jags might also be enticing given the pieces in place on their roster.
Elsewhere, McCarthy could be uniquely qualified for the Jets given QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams (currently) remain under contract with the club – he coached both with the Packers – and no one might be better able to bridge the gap for a franchise clearly in some level of transition. But … McCarthy would need to have the stomach to work for Woody Johnson, who’s only a rung or two below Jones when it comes to involvement above from ownership.
Bill Belichick?
It’s already been reported that multiple NFL teams, including the Raiders, have reached out to the legendary coach, who took the University of North Carolina’s head job last month. And there was speculation Belichick might be a candidate to replace McCarthy last year following Dallas’ playoff flameout against Green Bay. Belichick and Jones have a close relationship, and the Cowboys come with many of the resources and talented players that might lure many prospective candidates toward the job.
Of course, as it pertains to Belichick, would that be sufficient to break his contract with UNC a month into the new adventure? There’s also the question of whether he could actually coexist professionally with Jones – something his mentor, Hall of Famer Bill Parcells, only managed for four years. Nevertheless, it’s one more option the 72-year-old could probably consider at a stage of his life and career when he essentially doesn’t have to fret much about long-term repercussions.
Deion Sanders?
He’s apparently regarded as a candidate to take over the team he played for when it won Super Bowl 30 so many years ago. Though there have been enough mixed signals, Sanders has repeatedly indicated a preference to remain at the University of Colorado aside from unique conditions that would lure him to the NFL, specifically coaching his sons. But given the contract QB Dak Prescott signed in September, hard to envision any scenario where former Buffs QB Shedeur Sanders comes to Dallas in 2025.
Former NFL head coaches
Whether or not Belichick is viable, given how desperate Jones is to break his team’s Super Bowl hex, it stands to reason the owner might lean toward hiring someone with familiarity in a leading role to replace McCarthy – who followed the likes of Parcells and Wade Phillips, though they preceded longtimer Jason Garrett. But this could be an opening more appropriate for, say, Pete Carroll or Kliff Kingsbury, maybe even Steve Spagnuolo, who would offer experience and, theoretically, a full appreciation of what this very challenging job entails.
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LOSERS
Aspiring NFL head coaches
Whether it’s Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn, Liam Coen, Joe Brady, Jesse Minter, Bobby Slowik or otherwise, the Dallas job probably isn’t one where a potential first-time HC would get a ton of consideration – perhaps Johnson might, but he’s also made it clear he won’t take any job but the one that’s absolutely right for him. Worse, with McCarthy now in play, there could well be one fewer landing spot elsewhere in the league for hot (or relatively hot) assistants seeking their opportunity for the big promotion.
(The one notable exception could be Philadelphia Eagles OC Kellen Moore, who held the same role in Dallas for four seasons after previously serving as a backup quarterback to Tony Romo and Prescott. Moore’s coaching arrow is again on a rising trajectory given how Philly’s offense has rehabbed this season – thank you also, Saquon Barkley – and he would possess a near-complete understanding of what working for Jones is like.)
Jerry Jones
Midway through his fourth decade as owner and steward of what’s almost inarguably the country’s most popular sports franchise, he’s once again searching for the man who will lead the Cowboys, now 29 years removed their most recent Super Bowl appearance (and win), back to the promised land. Yet despite the money, publicity (to the degree that’s alluring) and opportunity Jones can offer, there are also aspects of his operation working against him – namely himself. It’s not an easy needle to thread for any coach who might want to rule over his domain, establish a culture and philosophy all while knowing Jones will remain top banana. Jones also didn’t do himself or his team any favors by burning another week talking to McCarthy – as if that couldn’t have been resolved in the previous months – at the expense of speaking to prospective candidates.
And Jerry didn’t help McCarthy in 2024 by dragging his feet before reaching what were basically inevitable extensions with Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb – and after basically sitting out free agency (despite a repeatedly avowed “all in” approach) even as a good chunk of the team followed former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to the Washington Commanders, who ultimately leapfrogged the Cowboys in the division. Prospective coaches, especially those already in high demand, will surely need to have their eyes wide open regarding the parameters in play here.
Dak Prescott
His numbers were incredible in 2020, his first with McCarthy, even if the wins weren’t consistently coming before he suffered a dislocated ankle in the fifth game. Prescott made a spectacular comeback in 2021 and was the league’s MVP runner-up last season before a blown hamstring ended his 2024 campaign prematurely. But his play was generally Pro Bowl-caliber under his former coach, he hauled in a record four-year, $240 million extension and consistently expressed his desire that McCarthy remain aboard given Dallas’ baseline of success during his tenure. Now? Effectively back to Square One.
Mike McCarthy
He wasn’t able to end Dallas’ championship drought, and the team’s playoff losses – two to the San Francisco 49ers and last year’s 48-32 blowout defeat to the Packers at AT&T Stadium – reflected a lack of preparation generally and in terms of situational football and adjustments against the Niners more specifically. McCarthy has also been critiqued for a lack of imagination schematically, though he is generally considered one of the league’s better play callers. However given the self-scouting and deep dive into analytics-based football he did between his stints in Green Bay and Dallas, it would track that McCarthy continues to refine his approach ahead of the next job he presumably accepts.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.