Well, as painful and excruciating as this collapse may be for the New York Mets, they can at least take solace that they spared baseball the embarrassment of not having a single postseason race in the National League.
While the Philadelphia Phillies have buried the Mets in the NL East, the Milwaukee Brewers have a stranglehold on the NL Central Division, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have created some separation from the San Diego Padres in the NL West, there is the wild card race.
Well, one spot, at least.
The Chicago Cubs, with the second-best record in baseball, are positioned to be the top wild team in the NL with home-field advantage in the wild-card round.
The Padres, despite losing 11 of their last 16 games with their offense disappearing into the Pacific, still have a three-game lead over the Mets for the second wild-card spot.
And then, there are the Mets.
Remember three months ago to almost the day on June 12 when they had the best record in baseball, 45-29, with a 5 ½ game lead in the NL East?
Ok, how about two weeks ago when they swept the Phillies at Citi Field, moving to within just four games of the Phillies, after Phillies ace Zack Wheeler was declared out for the season?
Well, here they are now, with the fourth-worst record in baseball since June 13, losing nine of their last 13 games after being bludgeoned three consecutive games by the Phillies (21-5).
“We’ve got a group of guys that we feel like can make a deep run,’ Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, who has a league-leading 50 homers, told reporters. And that’s what we want to do.”
The Mets will gladly accept an invitation to the October party, at this point.
Their safety net of at getting into the postseason as the third and final wild-card team now is in dire danger, thanks to a 31-46 record since June 13.
Their collapse has been so stunning that two of the teams that surrendered at the trade deadline, waving the white flag by trading away top players, suddenly are back from the dead.
The San Francisco Giants, who traded two of their best relievers at the deadline, going 9-23 from the All-Star break to Aug. 22, are now just sitting two games back of the Mets after winning 13 of their last 17 games.
The Arizona Diamondbacks, who gave away their best power-hitter, their best starter, their best reliever, their starting first baseman and their DH, are 3 ½ games back, despite having a losing record (73-74).
The St. Louis Cardinals, who also dumped at the deadline by trading away closer Ryan Helsley to the Mets and pitcher Steven Matz to the Red Sox, even are hanging around at 4 games back with their losing record.
And then there are those Cincinnati Reds, whose obituary was written every other week in their hometown, including as late as last weekend, are in the best position of all the teams chasing the Mets.
They are sitting only two games back but considering they have the tiebreaker over the Mets, it’s really a one-game deficit. The Reds also have a favorable schedule with nine games against the Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates, with three games apiece against the Cubs and Brewers.
“We’ve been through a really tough stretch,’’ Reds manager Terry Francona says. “We’re still alive. Until they make you go home, they keep playing.’
So here we are, four teams for one spot, a race where mediocrity reigns.
Just look at their records since July 27:
- Diamondbacks: 22-19
- Giants: 20-20.
- Reds: 18-22
- Mets. 14-26
“We put ourselves in this position,’ Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters.
And for everyone hoping for at least a semblance of drama in the final weeks of the National League, the baseball world can only say, “Thank you.’’
The Mets’ starting rotation, outside of David Peterson (9-5, 3.72 ERA) and a trio of rookies they called up the last month, has gone belly-up. Ace Kodai Senga is in the minor leagues trying to figure out what’s gone wrong after yielding a 5.90 ERA in his last nine starts. Sean Manaea is yielding a 7.71 ERA in his past seven starts. Frankie Montas is undergoing Tommy John surgery. Clay Holmes, who has already pitched twice as many innings as a year ago, hasn’t pitched longer than 5 ⅓ innings in 15 of his last 16 starts, lasting just four innings on Wednesday. Their pitching staff that had MLB’s lowest ERA at 2.83 ERA on June 12, has since yielded a 5.09 ERA, fourth-worst in baseball.
Their starters can’t even get into the fifth inning, their staff ERA is 5.31, fourth-worst in the NL, and by the time the offense gets going, it’s far too late.
The Mets have trailed in 62 games entering the ninth inning this season.
They have lost all of them, last winning on Pete Alonso’s dramatic game-winning homer in last year’s wild-card series against the Brewers.
“Nothing,’ Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said, “seems to be working for us.’
The Mets will have 15 remaining games entering the weekend, but nine are against contenders with the Texas Rangers, Padres and Cubs.
They need to turn it around in a hurry to avoid this year’s $340 million team becoming a revised version of the “The Worst Team Money Can Buy.’’
NL Central
While the Brewers’ lead over the Cubs melted down to 5 ½ games after being swept by the Texas Rangers, the only real suspense they face is keeping ahead of the Phillies for home-field advantage in not only the National League, but all of baseball.
The Brewers still have a three-game lead over the Phillies since they own the tiebreaker advantage, but it was six games entering the week. Still, the Brewers should have no problem. They play nine of their last 15 games in Milwaukee, including nine against the Cardinals and Los Angeles Angels. They finish the season with a three-game series against the Reds, which could decide the Reds’ fate.
“There’s no world in which we thought this was going to be an easy thing,” Brewers GM Matt Arnold told Milwaukee reporters. “What we’re trying to do is very, very difficult. This time of year, you can feel it. Hopefully, there is more good baseball ahead of us.”
The Cubs, who put All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker and reliever Danny Palencia on the injured list this week, have the luxury of coasting these last 15 games. They realistically can’t catch the Brewers for the division title, but know that they aren’t in any real danger of not winning the top wild-card berth, meaning that the best-of-three wild-card series would be played at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs may not have a dominant No. 4 starter, but with the NL postseason schedule this year, they wouldn’t need a fourth starter until the NLCS. They’ll certainly take their chances with ace Shota Imanaga, rookie Caleb Horton and Matthew Boyd.
NL West
The Dodgers, with a luxury-tax payroll of nearly $400 million, proved to the baseball world this season that they didn’t ruin the sport.
They won’t break the Seattle Mariners’ modern-day record of 116 victories.
They won’t even win 100 games.
Still, they will almost certainly the division, taking a three-game lead into the final 15 games over the Padres, which in essence is a four-game lead since they own the tiebreaker.
Yet, they are getting healthy, and hot, at just the right time, letting everyone know the World Series title still goes through Los Angeles.
Their rotation just struck out 49 batters in the last five games while limiting the opposition to a .091 batting average. It’s the only time in the modern era any team’s starters have recorded that many strikeouts with a sub-.100 batting average over five games in history, according to OptaSTATS.
The Dodgers’ biggest concern is the bullpen. They gave Tanner Scott a four-year, $72 million contract to be their closer, and he has a 4.47 ERA with nine blown saves. Kirby Yates, who received a one-year, $13 million contract, was supposed to be their setup man, and has a 4.71 ERA. Blake Treinen, who has appeared in only 24 games, has a 4.05 ERA. And Brock Stewart, their only bullpen acquisition at the deadline, is on the injured list.
The Dodgers, with six starters and needing only three in the first two rounds, leaving manager Dave Roberts trying to decide who goes into the pen. They have Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan. Yamamoto, Snell and Glasnow have each averaged 4 ⅔ innings in their postseason starts, and Kershaw has not pitched six innings in a postseason start since 2020.
The way Roberts figures it, they’ve still got time to figure it out, just like they did a year ago when they had only three starters, but were the last team standing while spraying champagne at Yankee Stadium.
“You’re talking about winning 11 games in October,” Roberts told reporters. “Getting there, obviously, but guys you can trust in that hotbox of moments. There’s experience that certainly matters. It does. But talent and performance and the recency matters, too.”
Meanwhile, the Padres have to remedy their offensive woes if they’re going to have a chance to play past the first few days of October. They have lost 11 of their last 16 games, and scored just three runs in their last two games against the Reds, going 0 for 14 with runners in scoring position.
All-Star third baseman Manny Machado is particularly struggling, hitting .193 with a .552 OPS with three homers since Aug. 1.
“It sucks that it’s happening at this moment,” Machado told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “But it’s part of the game. As long as we’re winning games and we’re in a good spot, that’s all that matters. Doesn’t matter what I’m doing. My stats don’t matter. It’s about winning ballgames at the end of the day.’’
The Padres aren’t doing a lot of winning, but thanks to the Mets’ woes, they still have a five-game lead, with a beautiful present coming to town this weekend. The Colorado Rockies are in San Diego for a four-game series, and next week, they get a three-game series in Chicago against the White Sox.
The Padres are in the playoffs, but for the 20th consecutive year, there will be no division title.
The Padres appear to be heading for a first-round wild card matchup against the Chicago Cubs.
It would be the first time the two teams faced one another in the playoffs.
Now, we’ll see who the other NL wild-card team is that joins them in October.
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